Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbdd5…6a99 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$420 (+10%) realized +$421 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%73W / 81L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days−$123
14 days+$313
30 days+$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$529
other 15% −$134
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 42% -18.0%
≤30d 115 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 50% +0.5%
≤90d 152 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 47% -0.0%
all 154 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 46% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 46% -1.1%
10% -26.8% 44% -10.5%
15% -33.9% 38% -19.2%
20% -40.4% 31% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses73 / 81
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions5
Markets (closed)154 / 159
History coverage94d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$21 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 +$23 +65%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +116%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$56 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $46 +$64 +140%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +43%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 +$38 +62%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 +$26 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 +$6 +31%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$14 +27%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$9 +31%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 −$7 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 +$68 +108%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$10 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$3 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$142 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $44 5h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $20 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 6h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 7h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $35 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $46 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 28h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $61 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $19 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $50 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.69 · official $98.69 (match) · 289 history records