Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbdd7…6497 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,626 (+2%) realized +$3,716 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%126W / 67L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$313
14 days−$146
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$819
world 22% +$631
other 20% +$2,635
crypto 9% −$267
sports 7% −$283
economics 4% −$23
tech 2% −$12
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.1% -5.0% 90% 20% -5.1%
≤30d 31 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 16% -9.5%
≤90d 50 +2.9% -6.9% 74% 18% -4.7%
all 193 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 22% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 22% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 12% -16.3%
15% -25.4% 7% -24.4%
20% -32.7% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$622) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$53 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$1,883
Realized+$3,716
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses126 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions7
Markets (closed)193 / 200
History coverage194d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 77¢ 73¢ $770 $730 −$40 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $780 $702 −$78 (-10%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $225 $225 +$0 (+0%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+4%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 96¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 49¢ 86¢ $28 $49 +$21 (+77%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $965 +$30 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $940 +$10 +1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $213 +$2 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,419 −$10 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$92 +30%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $387 +$5 +1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,633 +$178 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $385 +$5 +1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $935 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $7,702 −$3 -0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 05 $1,117 +$28 +3%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $486 −$485 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? Jun 02 $178 +$2 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $264 −$56 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,500 +$5 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $60 −$17 -29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $30 +$58 +197%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $233 −$2 -1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $251 +$18 +7%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $1,227 +$80 +6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $122 −$115 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $147 +$90 +61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $235 −$31 -13%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $55 +$96 +174%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 26 $313 −$33 -11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 22 $846 +$37 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day May 21 $650 +$14 +2%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $580 +$20 +4%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $57 +$8 +14%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $461 +$117 +26%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $156 −$70 -45%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $389 −$221 -57%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $223 −$70 -31%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $569 +$1 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3,037 +$28 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 10 $3,109 +$41 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $7,830 +$2,212 +28%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 19 $491 +$7 +2%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $6,206 +$159 +3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Apr 17 $490 +$2 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $3,027 +$55 +2%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the Apr 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 10 $1,520 +$35 +2%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $8,600 +$851 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $225 1h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 77¢ $770 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $146 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $995 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $965 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $950 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $406 2d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $146 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 2d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $74 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $326 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $23 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $184 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $842 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $66 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $26 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $36 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $54 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $890 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $396 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 24¢ $147 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 24¢ $9 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 24¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,882.86 · official $1,882.86 (match) · 2199 history records