Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbdd8…29f5 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$22
other 21% +$19
politics 18% +$1
economics 17% −$2
world 6% +$18
culture 2% $0
tech 2% +$7
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.0% +5.0% 100% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 6 +7.3% -2.9% 83% 33% -5.7%
≤90d 22 +8.5% -1.9% 86% 41% -1.3%
all 59 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 17% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 7% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 7% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage232d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 86¢ 86¢ $162 $161 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $24 +$10 +41%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 21 $23 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 21 $71 +$10 +14%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 26 $70 +$3 +5%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 26 $56 −$14 -25%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 02 $11 +$5 +50%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $17 +$3 +15%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 02 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $15 +$7 +45%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 22 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 22 $24 +$4 +16%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March Apr 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebane Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 07 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Apr 07 $15 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 07 $19 +$1 +8%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 07 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 06 $21 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $1,635 −$3 -0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $1,402 −$15 -1%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen Mar 02 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Mar 02 $24 +$5 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 02 $200 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $43 +$2 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $54 +$1 +3%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $19 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 16 $29 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Dec 17 $34 −$6 -17%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 10 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 10 $89 $0 -0%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $163 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $34 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 87¢ $71 25d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $73 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 25d
Kash Patel out by December 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $42 25d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $1 49d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 49d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 56d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Western Conference? SELL No 100¢ $17 56d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 59d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 59d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $56 59d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 85¢ $24 59d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 70d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl BUY Yes 86¢ $24 70d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March BUY No 98¢ $16 74d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 74d
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebane SELL No 99¢ $21 74d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Western Conference? BUY No 98¢ $17 83d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 83d
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $32 83d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 94¢ $9 87d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $19 87d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 66¢ $18 96d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $22 96d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $1,621 106d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 73¢ $5 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.92 · official $190.92 (match) · 161 history records