Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbddc…5d4f weather 159 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-21%) realized −$125 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%50W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$36
14 days−$77
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 40% -17.2%
≤30d 107 -12.2% -20.5% 36% 36% -21.7%
≤90d 151 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -29.7%
all 151 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 33% -29.7%
10% -30.9% 33% -36.5%
15% -37.6% 33% -42.6%
20% -43.7% 33% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses50 / 101
Open positions8
Markets (closed)151 / 159
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$27 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$52 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.81 · official $51.81 (match) · 220 history records