Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbddd…ad74 sports 363 markets active 2h ago coverage 355d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$853 (-3%) realized −$848 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%217W / 145L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$177
14 days−$777
30 days−$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$591
other 16% −$380
crypto 1% −$291
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -23.6%
≤30d 33 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 42% -25.0%
≤90d 111 -7.3% -16.1% 59% 50% -12.6%
all 362 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 50% -13.2%
10% -24.0% 40% -21.5%
15% -31.3% 31% -29.1%
20% -38.1% 19% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$58 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

355d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses217 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)362 / 363
History coverage355d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $499 $494 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 −$65 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$30 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $108 +$51 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$19 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $73 +$16 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$35 -62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$54 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$50 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $65 −$65 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $87 +$13 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $59 +$62 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $404 −$291 -72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $34 +$22 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $378 +$132 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $98 −$98 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $400 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $131 −$131 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $26 +$9 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $275 −$275 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $124 −$124 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $694 +$265 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $677 +$283 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $31 +$31 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $352 +$198 +56%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $147 −$147 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $183 +$75 +41%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $296 +$61 +20%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $16 −$13 -83%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $105 +$106 +101%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $99 +$14 +14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $53 +$43 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $99 +$53 +53%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $93 +$11 +12%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $103 −$9 -9%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $19 +$79 +424%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $40 −$20 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $507 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $85 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $60 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $13 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $146 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $108 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $108 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $89 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $89 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $73 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $104 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $54 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $65 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $100 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $87 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.00 · official $494.00 (match) · 978 history records