Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbde0…4333 crypto 168 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$197 · open +$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%101W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$149
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$299
other 8% +$175
sports 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 157 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 42% -15.1%
≤90d 157 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 42% -15.1%
all 157 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 42% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 42% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 27% -23.2%
15% -32.3% 15% -30.6%
20% -38.9% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$175
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses101 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)157 / 168
History coverage18d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $320 $492 +$172 (+54%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $35 $54 +$19 (+55%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $81 −$13 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $41 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $40 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $93 −$50 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$40 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$12 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $227 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.23 · official $620.23 (match) · 426 history records