Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbde1…3448 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,871 (+12%) realized +$1,774 · open +$97
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$164
14 days+$178
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$495
politics 24% +$848
crypto 11% +$180
tech 8% +$71
other 7% +$77
culture 2% +$18
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.9% -31.1% 33% 0% -27.8%
≤30d 13 +5.2% -4.8% 62% 46% +3.1%
≤90d 36 +16.6% +5.5% 72% 44% +2.9%
all 37 +16.0% +5.0% 70% 43% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 43% +2.5%
10% -5.1% 32% -7.3%
15% -14.2% 30% -16.3%
20% -22.6% 14% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$60 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,213
Realized+$1,774
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage105d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $359 $498 +$140 (+39%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $380 $277 −$103 (-27%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $208 $235 +$26 (+13%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $169 $203 +$34 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $359 +$24 +7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $353 −$153 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$35 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$41 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $200 −$172 -86%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $505 +$43 +8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $44 +$20 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,038 +$410 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $510 +$412 +81%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $613 +$223 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,002 −$44 -4%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 29 $307 −$56 -18%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 22 $842 +$136 +16%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 15 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Drake release a surprise album? May 15 $241 +$18 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $109 +$5 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $102 +$5 +5%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $599 +$18 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $500 +$12 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April Apr 21 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $261 +$254 +97%
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April? Apr 18 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 18 $300 −$67 -22%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $815 −$34 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $168 +$24 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $400 +$191 +48%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 08 $424 −$56 -13%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $100 −$25 -25%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $360 +$30 +8%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 02 $235 +$15 +6%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? Apr 02 $300 +$52 +17%
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Apr 02 $100 +$97 +97%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30? Apr 02 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $286 +$105 +37%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $305 −$19 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 2h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 2h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 74¢ $289 7h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $162 8h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 8h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 9h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 9h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 22h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $350 22h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $84 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,212.57 · official $1,210.06 (match) · 297 history records