Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde2…1d10 sports 40 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$8 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1
other 45% +$2
crypto 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -9.9%
≤30d 35 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -9.9%
≤90d 35 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -9.9%
all 35 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 37% -9.9%
10% -17.1% 37% -18.5%
15% -25.2% 37% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 37% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +364%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $16 2h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 11¢ $5 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $5 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $5 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $5 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $5 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 9h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $5 21h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $5 21h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $24 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $12 21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $14 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 84¢ $21 27h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $5 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $5 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $5 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $10 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $5 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.35 · official $16.35 (match) · 53 history records