Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbde2…c636 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$144 (+10%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$43
sports 40% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 58% -7.2%
≤30d 24 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 58% -7.2%
≤90d 24 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 58% -7.2%
all 24 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 58% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 58% -7.2%
10% -14.7% 38% -16.0%
15% -22.9% 25% -24.2%
20% -30.5% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $119 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $107 +$48 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$14 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$10 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $71 −$43 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $123 −$69 -56%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $103 −$8 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $102 +$11 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $92 +$19 +21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $98 +$10 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $66 +$30 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $150 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $107 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $29 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records