Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde3…4a49 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108,936 (-8%) realized −$111,382 · open +$2,446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%94W / 91L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,619per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$18,862est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$70,812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$17,624
other 6% +$19,394
politics 1% −$19,689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.4% +9.8% 58% 58% -15.3%
≤30d 59 +22.6% +11.0% 54% 53% +12.3%
≤90d 173 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 46% -14.1%
all 185 +6.6% -3.5% 51% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 49% -10.9%
10% -12.8% 48% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 46% -27.2%
20% -28.9% 43% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$10,273) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,525 vs −$6,964 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$70,812
Realized−$111,382
Unrealized+$2,446
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses94 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$18,862
Open positions5
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$7,619
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 70¢ 72¢ $53,650 $55,947 +$2,297 (+4%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 86¢ 86¢ $12,900 $12,975 +$75 (+1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $770 $802 +$32 (+4%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $528 $566 +$38 (+7%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $518 $522 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $7,495 +$5,756 +77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8,700 +$6,300 +72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2,597 −$2,543 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $2,256 +$296 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $35 +$109 +307%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18,034 −$18,034 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,479 −$6,479 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10,018 +$8,298 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,874 −$6,786 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $3,403 +$4,575 +134%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,900 +$4,100 +70%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $6,309 +$12,082 +192%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5,901 +$6,246 +106%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $4,588 +$6,441 +140%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,323 +$4,837 +146%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $8,428 −$8,338 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $3,526 +$3,400 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11,756 +$7,577 +64%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $4,615 +$5,385 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $4,119 +$1,889 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1,393 +$1,587 +114%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $2,783 +$2,772 +100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $519 −$288 -56%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,047 +$1,944 +186%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7,993 −$7,993 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15,928 +$16,329 +102%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $18,944 +$1,883 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5,709 −$5,709 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,978 +$14,355 +160%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2,095 −$2,095 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,314 −$3,314 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 14 $5,102 −$5,102 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10,067 +$9,933 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,600 +$6,400 +178%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,543 +$7,315 +474%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $6,879 −$6,879 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $14,512 −$14,512 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $23,350 +$10,186 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10,234 +$5,558 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $20,674 +$24,535 +119%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,967 −$1,967 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $3,575 −$3,575 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 08 $5,002 −$5,002 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,420 −$2,420 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $3,611 −$3,611 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $149 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $68 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $21 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $1,848 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $4 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $2 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $106 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $170 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $68 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $33 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $425 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $53 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $638 6m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $85 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $2 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $75 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $3 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $2,975 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $10 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $2,182 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $11 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $30,515 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $4 21m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $5 21m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $340 21m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $14,281 21m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $9 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $7,487 2h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 3h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $113 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,812.09 · official $67,725.35 · 3500 history records