Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbde3…317f crypto 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%80W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$362
7 days+$242
14 days+$242
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$191
crypto 36% −$125
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 80% +10.8%
≤30d 5 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 80% +10.8%
≤90d 5 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 80% +10.8%
all 173 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -7.1%
10% -22.6% 41% -16.0%
15% -30.1% 35% -24.1%
20% -36.9% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses80 / 93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage98d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $448 $445 −$3 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $347 $355 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $281 +$167 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $241 +$110 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $156 +$85 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 24 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$11 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 23 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 23 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$16 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$22 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $449 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $351 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $241 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $281 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $156 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.04 · official $800.04 (match) · 289 history records