Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbde6…c52c sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$105 (+18%) realized +$106 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%109W / 73L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days−$0
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$64
other 17% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.1% +18.6% 62% 62% +17.4%
≤30d 45 +14.8% +3.8% 56% 56% +3.9%
≤90d 177 +18.5% +7.2% 60% 59% +8.7%
all 182 +18.5% +7.2% 60% 59% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 59% +5.8%
10% -3.0% 58% -4.4%
15% -12.4% 53% -13.6%
20% -21.0% 49% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses109 / 73
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)182 / 186
History coverage99d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 49¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 +$6 +180%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $4 +$6 +140%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$3 +188%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 May 25 $3 +$2 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3 +$1 +55%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $2 +$3 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $2 +$3 +140%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 May 22 $2 +$3 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7 +$3 +46%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Clara Tauson vs Jaqueline Cristian May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $3 +$2 +97%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 19 $4 +$1 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $2 +$2 +83%
Valencia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jaume Munar May 18 $3 $0 -12%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 18 $2 +$3 +101%
Oeiras 4: Hugo Dellien vs Laslo Djere May 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 41¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $3 21h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 22h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $2 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 42¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 9d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 10d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 10d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 19d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 52¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 52¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.16 · official $9.16 (match) · 402 history records