Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbde9…f6e1 sports 19 markets active 8d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,052 (+10%) realized +$1,052 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,048
other 0% +$2
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -28.9% -35.7% 60% 40% -39.7%
≤90d 7 -23.6% -30.9% 57% 43% -40.9%
all 19 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 26% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 26% -0.3%
10% -20.1% 21% -9.8%
15% -27.8% 16% -18.5%
20% -34.9% 16% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$1,159 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,052
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage136d
Avg bet$543
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 20 $102 +$81 +79%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $2 $0 +10%
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1? Mar 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 10 $7 $0 +2%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Mar 10 $1,472 +$1,414 +96%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5 Mar 10 $4,020 +$4,184 +104%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Mar 09 $4,415 −$4,415 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Feb 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Gabriele Bosio 81¢ $20 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $20 8d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY No 84¢ $10 35d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? BUY No 95¢ $30 35d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 50¢ $183 63d
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) BUY Lakers 55¢ $102 65d
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $1,472 105d
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) BUY Grizzlies 52¢ $15 105d
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $1,000 105d
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $3,400 105d
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4,020 105d
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 117d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 98¢ $7 117d
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 117d
Will the US strike Somalia next? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 144d
Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 144d
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 144d
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 144d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 100¢ $2 144d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records