Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbded…156e crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-9%) realized −$213 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$125
14 days−$506
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$125
sports 22% +$181
other 18% −$117
world 15% −$369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.0% -14.1% 25% 22% +1.8%
≤30d 62 -20.4% -28.0% 26% 24% -16.4%
≤90d 62 -20.4% -28.0% 26% 24% -16.4%
all 62 -20.4% -28.0% 26% 24% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 24% -16.4%
10% -34.9% 24% -24.4%
15% -41.2% 21% -31.7%
20% -46.9% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$30 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 46
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$76 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$52 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$65 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$121 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$79 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $110 +$86 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$82 +544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $55 +$132 +240%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $369 −$369 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +31%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$3 -12%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $119 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $33 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $33 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $115 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $55 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $99 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $31.33 · 161 history records