Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbdef…2493 sports 1564 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1538W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$61
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$59
weather 18% +$28
other 16% +$23
crypto 2% +$3
politics 2% −$44
finance 2% +$3
tech 1% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 190 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1563 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1563 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1538 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1563 / 1564
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $1,005 +$1 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Dota 2: NGNB vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $940 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $846 +$53 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $100 2h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 7h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $100 12h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $100 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 31h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $100 45h
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $100 45h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $100 47h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $100 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 3d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $100 3d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 100¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records