Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdef…9015
weather · 602 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$86 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$83 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$453
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses541 / 46
Open positions15
Markets (closed)587 / 602
History coverage227d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 587 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 97¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? No 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $39 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% +$87
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% −$1
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $19 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $35 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $28 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $29 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $25 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 248 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 583 +0.1% -9.5% 92% 1% -9.1%
all 587 +0.1% -9.5% 92% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.78 · official $452.82 (match) · 1464 history records