Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf4…d449 world 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$78 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate74%84W / 30L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,001per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,955
7 days−$2,955
14 days−$1,459
30 days−$1,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$407
finance 7% −$4
politics 3% +$29
other 3% +$308
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$23
culture 0% +$30
tech 0% +$7
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.0% -43.9% 33% 0% -29.2%
≤30d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 12% -11.5%
≤90d 96 +2.3% -7.5% 75% 25% -9.5%
all 114 +2.6% -7.2% 74% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 23% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 9% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$149 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses84 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage191d
Avg bet$1,001
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 17¢ 15¢ $608 $540 −$68 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13,535 −$2,941 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $11,846 +$145 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 07 $83 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1,986 +$34 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5,826 +$73 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 03 $218 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35,145 +$1,243 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $16 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $60 +$20 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $15 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $15 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $337 +$19 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $505 −$107 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +11%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? May 09 $2 −$1 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 09 $721 −$400 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $1 $0 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $33 +$3 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 06 $71 +$29 +41%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 05 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? May 04 $2 +$2 +93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $1,051 +$219 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $695 +$36 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Apr 29 $168 −$8 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 29 $198 +$5 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 29 $29 −$6 -19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 29 $27 +$5 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $64 +$12 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $7 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $2,174 +$73 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $6 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $15 −$4 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $128 −$101 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $126 +$7 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 27 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $551 +$38 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $158 +$10 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $273 +$13 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2,217 −$17 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $99 +$8 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $1,127 −$107 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $671 +$9 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $192 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $609 +$82 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $530 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $268 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $5 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $11 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $50 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $5 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $50 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $10 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $42 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $6 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $64 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $530 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $530 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $182 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $35 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $35 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $106 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.47 · official $549.47 (match) · 1448 history records