Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf5…9c7b sports 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-18%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$10
other 23% −$7
crypto 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.0% -32.2% 32% 20% -28.9%
≤30d 25 -25.0% -32.2% 32% 20% -28.9%
≤90d 25 -25.0% -32.2% 32% 20% -28.9%
all 25 -25.0% -32.2% 32% 20% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 20% -28.9%
10% -38.7% 20% -35.7%
15% -44.6% 16% -41.9%
20% -50.0% 8% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 $0 -27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +159%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$5 -76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 −$2 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$1 -85%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $13 −$5 -38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $2 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $2 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 90¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 92¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 64¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 37¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 64¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 54¢ $4 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 35¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records