Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf7…c089 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized +$204 · open −$227
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$1,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$730
sports 16% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 25% -21.7%
≤30d 12 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 12 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 25% -21.7%
all 12 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 25% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 25% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 0% -29.2%
15% -34.7% 0% -36.0%
20% -41.1% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$125 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,702
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $504 $392 −$112 (-22%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $370 $344 −$26 (-7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 89¢ 80¢ $381 $343 −$38 (-10%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $245 $252 +$8 (+3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $151 $206 +$55 (+37%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $145 $152 +$8 (+5%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes $40 $6 −$34 (-86%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 15¢ $87 $4 −$83 (-96%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes $23 $1 −$21 (-93%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,332 −$693 -52%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 −$3 -3%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $357 −$12 -3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $870 +$176 +20%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $448 −$73 -16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $452 −$52 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $397 +$44 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $167 −$7 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $236 +$27 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $136 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 80¢ $18 5m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 6m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 21m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 21m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $249 29m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $77 30m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 90¢ $365 46m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 50m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 55m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $77 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $133 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 88¢ $353 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $209 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $116 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.74 · official $1,701.74 (match) · 95 history records