Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf8…8d47 crypto 59 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-9%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$166
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 32% -21.1%
≤30d 59 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 32% -21.1%
≤90d 59 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 32% -21.1%
all 59 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 32% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 32% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 29% -28.7%
15% -45.6% 27% -35.6%
20% -50.9% 24% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$51 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$166 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$108 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$38 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records