Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf9…b71a other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$290 (-30%) realized −$289 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$2
sports 37% −$296
other 19% −$2
world 3% +$5
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -63.1% -66.6% 0% 0% -66.6%
≤30d 1 -63.1% -66.6% 0% 0% -66.6%
≤90d 9 -8.9% -17.6% 78% 11% -44.1%
all 13 -13.8% -22.0% 77% 8% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 8% -42.4%
10% -29.5% 8% -48.0%
15% -36.3% 8% -53.0%
20% -42.5% 8% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$99 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$289
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage176d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $173 $172 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 21 $164 −$104 -63%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $195 −$192 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 23 $341 +$2 +0%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Apr 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in December? Jan 06 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.12 · official $172.12 (match) · 27 history records