Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbdfa…79a0 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-30%) realized −$164 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$52
other 19% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-66.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -63.5% -66.9% 20% 20% -66.6%
≤90d 5 -63.5% -66.9% 20% 20% -66.6%
all 5 -63.5% -66.9% 20% 20% -66.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.9% 20% -66.6%
10% -70.1% 20% -69.8%
15% -73.0% 20% -72.7%
20% -75.6% 20% -75.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$50 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage15d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Maria Timofeeva 53¢ 56¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Michael Zheng 58¢ 61¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreescu Bianca Andreescu 55¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Clement Tabur 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Toby Samuel 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 51¢ $51 10m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 55¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Clement Tabur 47¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 53¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 58¢ $51 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $20 5h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 53¢ $51 11d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 49¢ $51 12d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 14d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.50 · official $277.13 (match) · 12 history records