Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe01…f020 sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$126
other 22% −$125
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +36.0% +23.0% 68% 63% +15.9%
≤30d 19 +36.0% +23.0% 68% 63% +15.9%
≤90d 19 +36.0% +23.0% 68% 63% +15.9%
all 54 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 48% -8.7%
10% -18.7% 35% -17.5%
15% -26.5% 24% -25.4%
20% -33.7% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage142d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Alex Hernandez 39¢ 31¢ $70 $56 −$14 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $96 +$56 +58%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $26 +$63 +246%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $61 +$13 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $23 +$26 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $20 −$4 -19%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 +$21 +139%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $16 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $14 +$2 +16%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $11 +$3 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $4 +$3 +84%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $2 +$2 +105%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $12 −$1 -9%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $5 +$7 +139%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gr Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Feb 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Feb 11 $4 −$3 -72%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner Feb 11 $1 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $44 −$41 -92%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Spark - Map 2 Winner Feb 11 $39 +$7 +18%
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs Feb 10 $59 +$3 +5%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? Feb 10 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $48 −$10 -21%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Bad Luck - Map 2 Winner Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs ENCE - Map 2 Winner Feb 10 $12 +$4 +35%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Feb 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Feb 09 $13 −$6 -43%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $2 −$1 -51%
Will SC Heerenveen vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Feb 01 $2 +$1 +38%
Transylvania Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Viktoriya Tomova Feb 01 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Feb 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Feb 01 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $6 −$1 -24%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Feb 01 $2 +$2 +96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Feb 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs magic (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Pla Feb 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playo Feb 01 $13 +$8 +61%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Feb 01 $4 −$3 -66%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 01 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $64 −$64 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Army Black Knights Jan 31 $14 +$29 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 39¢ $71 10m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $152 18m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $96 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $96 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $95 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 99¢ $88 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 28¢ $26 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $61 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $61 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $51 19h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 20h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 21h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 22¢ $17 21h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 26¢ $20 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $36 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $15 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 51¢ $15 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $16 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $16 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $14 25h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 78¢ $11 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Marcos Giron 70¢ $7 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Marcos Giron 37¢ $4 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 99¢ $7 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 64¢ $5 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $5 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 48¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.64 · official $55.64 (match) · 110 history records