Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe06…6389 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$5
other 31% +$1
politics 4% +$1
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.8% -13.0% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 47 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage472d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $74 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $84 +$5 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $70 +$4 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $3 $0 -12%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $2 $0 +21%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $37 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $37 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $30 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $41 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $41 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.90 · official $36.90 (match) · 160 history records