Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe08…48bc other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 243L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$33
sports 21% −$20
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage139d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $311 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $399 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $521 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $556 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $421 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $764 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $796 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $498 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $734 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $391 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 4h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $67 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $67 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 18h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 20h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $67 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 33h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 35h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 36h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 41h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 43h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1405 history records