Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe0b…17a4
weather · 499 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$61 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses204 / 293
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 499
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 497 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$50
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 23? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 21? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 31? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 22? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 20? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 31? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 7? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +224%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 70% −$31
crypto 17% −$17
other 6% −$5
sports 4% −$6
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -19.0% -26.7% 39% 39% -35.5%
≤30d 252 -20.8% -28.3% 37% 36% -30.0%
≤90d 454 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 38% -18.4%
all 497 -6.4% -15.3% 41% 39% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 39% -17.3%
10% -23.4% 36% -25.2%
15% -30.8% 33% -32.4%
20% -37.6% 28% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $2.63 (match) · 1137 history records