Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbe0f…2e38 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$16
politics 20% −$6
sports 15% +$62
crypto 6% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 11% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 9% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage131d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $286 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $973 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $548 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $257 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $444 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $287 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $541 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 19d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 23d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 32d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 33d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 33d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 65d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 65d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 65d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 65d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 65d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 66d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 66d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $236 66d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $236 66d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 67d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $244 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $244 67d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 67d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 67d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.95 · official $46.95 (match) · 339 history records