Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BE 0xbe11…7a9a crypto 163 markets active 11h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%150W / 12L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$76
sports 1% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 162 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses150 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage271d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $450 $450 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $447 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $445 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $442 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $442 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $438 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $436 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $433 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $433 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $431 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 10 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 08 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $428 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $426 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $424 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $423 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $427 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $425 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $423 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $422 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $420 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $417 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $415 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $420 −$7 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $418 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $417 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $416 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $415 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $412 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $409 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $408 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $407 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $406 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $403 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $403 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $401 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $400 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $450 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $447 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $447 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $426 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $442 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $442 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $440 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $441 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $440 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $438 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $436 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $436 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $433 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $433 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $431 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $430 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $430 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $428 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $426 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $424 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $423 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $423 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $6 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $427 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $425 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $316 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.77 · official $449.77 (match) · 349 history records