Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe13…924f other 27 markets active 17h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-14%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2
politics 27% −$6
sports 11% +$3
world 10% −$3
tech 6% +$2
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.0% -38.4% 30% 30% -37.1%
≤30d 10 -32.0% -38.4% 30% 30% -37.1%
≤90d 10 -32.0% -38.4% 30% 30% -37.1%
all 26 -17.1% -25.0% 42% 42% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 42% -24.0%
10% -32.2% 42% -31.2%
15% -38.8% 38% -37.9%
20% -44.8% 15% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage481d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -41%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +113%
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025? Oct 26 $1 $0 +37%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 26 $2 $0 +23%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Oct 03 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Frieren win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump tariff on EU alcohol before May? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 09 $2 +$1 +45%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 05 $1 $0 +37%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Mar 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Playboi Carti release “I AM MUSIC” by June 1? Mar 13 $1 $0 +48%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 28 $3 +$3 +102%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? Feb 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 20h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $1 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $5 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $2 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 91¢ $2 234d
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? SELL Yes $0 257d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 81¢ $1 319d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 345d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 74¢ $2 394d
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? BUY No 47¢ $1 394d
Will Frieren win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 409d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? BUY No 73¢ $1 450d
Trump tariff on EU alcohol before May? BUY No 63¢ $2 450d
Ukraine election called in 2025? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 461d
Will Playboi Carti release “I AM MUSIC” by June 1? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 461d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 474d
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 474d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 99¢ $2 474d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 67¢ $1 475d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.49 · official $1.49 (match) · 52 history records