Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbe16…1824 crypto 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,514 (-10%) realized −$1,309 · open −$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%150W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$22
politics 16% −$204
crypto 14% −$1,499
sports 0% −$10
world 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -25.1% -32.3% 11% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +11.6% +0.9% 33% 27% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -5.7% -14.7% 67% 11% -21.3%
all 184 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 8% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -20.8%
10% -19.0% 6% -28.4%
15% -26.8% 6% -35.3%
20% -34.0% 5% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$46 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$2,410
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses150 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)184 / 208
History coverage130d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $1,193 $1,395 +$203 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $1,192 $990 −$203 (-17%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-66%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $901 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,323 −$5 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,327 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,331 −$5 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,336 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $1 +$3 +252%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 12 $1 +$3 +313%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 12 $1 +$3 +331%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 08 $1 +$3 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 30 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $898 37m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $901 39m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,318 40m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,323 44m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,323 46m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,327 51m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,327 59m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,331 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,332 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,336 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 10¢ $2 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 36d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 38d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 38d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 38d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,409.50 · official $2,409.50 (match) · 454 history records