Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbe16…fa69 sports 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 37% −$2
sports 27% +$10
crypto 26% −$15
other 6% +$2
world 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.8% +1.1% 50% 50% -13.1%
≤30d 3 +47.8% +33.8% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤90d 4 +37.5% +24.4% 75% 50% +13.3%
all 24 +11.9% +1.3% 67% 54% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 54% -12.3%
10% -8.4% 38% -20.7%
15% -17.3% 33% -28.3%
20% -25.4% 33% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage151d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $8 +$6 +69%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $15 −$7 -45%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7 +$9 +120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $3 +$3 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 27 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 27 $12 −$11 -88%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $1 +$2 +206%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 27 $1 $0 +10%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Jan 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $1 $0 +26%
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 15 $1 $0 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 14 $1 +$1 +127%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games? Jan 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $1 +$1 +67%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $1 $0 +15%
Pelicans vs. Magic Jan 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $1 +$1 +115%
College Football: Undefeated 15-0 team? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 56¢ $8 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 24¢ $8 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 38¢ $15 5d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $7 17d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 108d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes $1 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL Yes $1 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $5 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes $1 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 112d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 84¢ $1 149d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 150d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 150d
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $1 150d
Bills vs. Broncos SELL Broncos 100¢ $1 150d
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? BUY No 87¢ $1 150d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 79¢ $1 150d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $2 154d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks BUY Timberwolves 44¢ $1 154d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $1 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records