Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BE 0xbe19…5a91 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$90 (+30%) realized +$90 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+19.2%	+7.8%	67%	67%	+23.0%
≤30d	6	+19.2%	+7.8%	67%	67%	+23.0%
≤90d	6	+19.2%	+7.8%	67%	67%	+23.0%
all	6	+19.2%	+7.8%	67%	67%	+23.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.8%	67%	+23.0%
10%	-2.5%	67%	+11.2%
15%	-11.9%	50%	+0.5%
20%	-20.5%	33%	-9.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized+$90

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage5d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	54¢	54¢	$52	$52	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$35	+$18	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$32	−$32	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$104	+$28	+27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$45	+$58	+129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$22	+$24	+109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$8	−$8	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$53	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$35	16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$32	3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$104	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$45	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$22	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	44¢	$8	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.80 · official $51.80 (match) · 11 history records