Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe1a…03a9 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$231 (-1%) realized −$233 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days−$354
14 days−$357
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$33
other 27% −$277
sports 4% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 32% -12.2%
≤30d 42 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 42 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 31% -12.3%
all 42 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 26% -20.7%
15% -26.5% 21% -28.3%
20% -33.7% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Portugal to win the second half? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 +$65 +76%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $92 +$16 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $458 −$33 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 +$9 +151%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $245 −$75 -31%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $60 +$10 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 −$11 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 −$58 -81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$59 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$9 -18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $172 −$30 -17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$15 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $122 +$178 +145%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 +$22 +36%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $354 −$202 -57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 +$17 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,497 −$29 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,028 −$28 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $199 −$5 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$8 +57%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$13 -28%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$17 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $592 −$22 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 −$12 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $358 −$12 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$17 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$14 -65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,198 −$55 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$2 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $15 −$4 -27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 34m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 34m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 34m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 34m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 35m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 35m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 38m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 40m
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $838 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $841 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $981 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $984 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $898 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $901 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $996 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $999 1h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $6 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $6 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $60 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $46 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $69 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $23 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $146 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.67 · official $163.48 (match) · 217 history records