Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe1a…8f31
crypto · 7 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$93 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$93
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$33 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$9 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$93
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.6% -44.4% 50% 33% -50.2%
≤30d 6 -38.6% -44.4% 50% 33% -50.2%
≤90d 6 -38.6% -44.4% 50% 33% -50.2%
all 6 -38.6% -44.4% 50% 33% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 33% -50.2%
10% -49.7% 33% -54.9%
15% -54.6% 17% -59.3%
20% -59.1% 0% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.39 · official $11.39 (match) · 10 history records