Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe1b…5db7 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-18%) realized −$25 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$32
other 43% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.7% -54.5% 23% 23% -39.6%
≤30d 13 -49.7% -54.5% 23% 23% -39.6%
≤90d 13 -49.7% -54.5% 23% 23% -39.6%
all 13 -49.7% -54.5% 23% 23% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.5% 23% -39.6%
10% -58.8% 23% -45.3%
15% -62.8% 23% -50.6%
20% -66.5% 15% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 32¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 65¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +233%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $10 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 68¢ $10 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 11¢ $3 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 53¢ $15 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 42¢ $28 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $18 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $1 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 83¢ $21 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $10 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $10 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.17 · official $6.87 (match) · 26 history records