Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe1d…244b sports 1501 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,356 (-1%) realized −$2,374 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1474W / 21L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$1,052
14 days−$1,049
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,086
other 16% +$273
world 5% −$1,006
politics 4% +$43
crypto 2% +$90
tech 2% +$27
economics 1% −$40
finance 1% +$12
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.4% -21.6% 83% 0% -23.7%
≤30d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 3% -13.5%
≤90d 558 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -11.2%
all 1495 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 1% -10.1%
10% -17.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$250 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,181
Realized−$2,374
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1474 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1495 / 1501
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$247
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,116 $1,129 +$13 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be on the cover of NBA 2K27? No 95¢ 79¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? Yes 15¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+233%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $912 +$4 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $490 +$26 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $373 −$348 -93%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $654 +$32 +5%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $1,016 +$13 +1%
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $169 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $939 −$788 -84%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will James Harden win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $428 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $580 +$6 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $1,097 +$1 +0%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $78 $0 +0%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $78 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Jun 11 $229 $0 +0%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $263 +$1 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $1,339 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score 1st FG Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs Threes in 1st 3 Minutes: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Points in 1st 3 Minutes O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Landry Shamet Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Miles McBride Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1Q O/U 54.5 Jun 06 $25 +$27 +108%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 04 $63 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $92 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 04 $165 +$2 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 04 $347 +$4 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $986 +$10 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 04 $1,180 +$4 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $571 +$43 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $172 +$28 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $196 +$4 +2%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 31 $50 $0 +0%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 31 $60 $0 +0%
Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5 May 31 $411 +$9 +2%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $495 +$1 +0%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 May 31 $968 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $1,982 +$2 +0%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 May 28 $25 $0 +1%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 28 $1,631 −$197 -12%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $2,161 +$2 +0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $691 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $222 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 95¢ $466 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $5 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $18 12h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $22 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $43 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $72 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $60 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $62 19h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $48 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $7 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $60 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $31 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $60 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $26 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $415 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $29 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $41 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $38 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $26 22h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $64 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $24 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,181.13 · official $1,181.13 (match) · 3500 history records