Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BE 0xbe1d…77cf sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$6 (+15%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +19.1%
≤30d 4 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +19.1%
≤90d 4 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +19.1%
all 4 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 100% +19.1%
10% +7.5% 75% +7.7%
15% -2.9% 25% -2.7%
20% -12.4% 0% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $6 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $4 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.28 · official $22.28 (match) · 14 history records