Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe20…1c4e crypto 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$54 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$194
crypto 16% −$242
sports 8% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.5% -15.4% 68% 41% -8.6%
≤30d 92 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 30% -12.6%
≤90d 92 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 30% -12.6%
all 92 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 30% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 30% -12.6%
10% -35.8% 16% -20.9%
15% -42.0% 9% -28.6%
20% -47.7% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage21d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $388 $0 +0%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$86 -85%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $101 +$33 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $202 −$79 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$71 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $286 +$15 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $233 +$53 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 +$48 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $223 +$57 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 −$113 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $130 +$11 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $119 +$10 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$41 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$33 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $93 7m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 54¢ $111 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 48¢ $102 42m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $117 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $8 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $85 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 59¢ $97 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $83 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 75¢ $116 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $211 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $201 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $104 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 98¢ $134 24h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $77 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $223 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.78 · official $94.78 (match) · 241 history records