Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe22…e0d5 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-20%) realized −$43 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$57
other 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 50% -57.1%
≤30d 2 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 50% -57.1%
≤90d 2 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 50% -57.1%
all 2 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 50% -57.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 50% -57.1%
10% -38.5% 0% -61.2%
15% -44.5% 0% -64.9%
20% -49.9% 0% -68.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$52 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 70¢ 81¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No $26 $12 −$14 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $81 −$52 -64%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $14 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $16 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $4 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $50 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $55 44h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $1 46h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 46h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 46h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 46h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $0 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $0 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 47h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.60 · official $140.60 (match) · 37 history records