Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbe25…c029 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+17%) realized +$36 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 40% +55.6%
≤30d 5 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 40% +55.6%
≤90d 5 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 40% +55.6%
all 5 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 40% +55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.8% 40% +55.6%
10% +29.1% 40% +40.7%
15% +16.6% 40% +27.1%
20% +5.2% 40% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$29 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+35%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 +$76 +127%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$139 +462%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 14h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.76 · official $97.76 (match) · 12 history records