Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe26…88ca world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$344 (-17%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$7
sports 17% −$338
politics 10% $0
other 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 19 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 0% -24.8%
all 19 -26.5% -33.5% 21% 0% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 0% -24.8%
10% -39.8% 0% -32.0%
15% -45.6% 0% -38.6%
20% -51.0% 0% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$32 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage77d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $90 +$8 +9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 27 $66 $0 +0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 24 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 04 $136 +$2 +2%
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5) May 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 22 $83 −$1 -2%
Spread: FC København (-2.5) May 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $54 $0 +0%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 May 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 20 $64 −$2 -4%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) May 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 18 $311 −$3 -1%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $633 −$8 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $48 1h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 1h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 2h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $30 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $16 4h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $15 4h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL Yes $34 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL Yes $33 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes $33 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes $34 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes $16 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes $16 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes $16 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes $16 2d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes $14 5d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes $12 5d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes $16 5d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY Yes $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY Yes $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records