Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe29…69f9 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$40 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$222
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤30d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤90d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 67% +13.9%
all 15 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 67% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 67% +13.9%
10% -16.2% 67% +3.0%
15% -24.3% 53% -6.9%
20% -31.7% 27% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 64¢ 100¢ $69 $108 +$39 (+56%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 6¢ $61 $5 −$55 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $73 +$58 +80%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $72 +$31 +43%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $140 +$131 +94%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $89 +$51 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $64 +$25 +40%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $48 +$16 +35%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $32 +$15 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $100 −$73 -73%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $80 −$79 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $64 +$16 +26%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Jun 20 $68 +$46 +67%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 64¢ $70 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $62 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $131 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 55¢ $73 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $103 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 69¢ $72 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $271 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 51¢ $140 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $140 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $89 3h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 100¢ $89 3h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $64 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $64 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 74¢ $48 4h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $48 4h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $32 5h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 100¢ $32 5h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 82¢ $27 5h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $74 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $74 5h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 76¢ $80 5h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre SELL Levan Chokheli 100¢ $80 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 66¢ $50 6h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 79¢ $64 6h
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 59¢ $68 8h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $9 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $19 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $15 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.16 · official $115.12 · 31 history records