Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe2a…1c1d crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.6% -3.6% 62% 58% -0.4%
≤30d 24 +6.6% -3.6% 62% 58% -0.4%
≤90d 24 +6.6% -3.6% 62% 58% -0.4%
all 24 +6.6% -3.6% 62% 58% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 58% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 54% -9.9%
15% -21.2% 42% -18.6%
20% -28.9% 29% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.57 · official $49.57 (match) · 72 history records