Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe2c…5e16 weather 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$32 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$64
weather 23% +$14
other 10% +$2
world 5% −$1
politics 4% −$3
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 53% -24.4%
≤30d 17 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 53% -24.4%
≤90d 17 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 53% -24.4%
all 17 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 53% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 53% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 29% -31.6%
15% -33.3% 29% -38.2%
20% -39.8% 24% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)17 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? No 13¢ 10¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? No 32¢ 39¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +107%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$23 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $16 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL No 23¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $26 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.58 · official $101.23 · 57 history records