Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe2f…fc02 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$8
other 33% −$4
crypto 16% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.7% -12.8% 33% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 3 -3.7% -12.8% 33% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 3 -3.7% -12.8% 33% 0% -12.9%
all 3 -3.7% -12.8% 33% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -12.9%
10% -21.2% 0% -21.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $51 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 38¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 34¢ $48 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $14 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $22 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $50 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $5 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $34 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $3 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.83 · official $145.83 (match) · 16 history records