Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe3b…fbdd weather 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$9
other 8% −$1
sports 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.0% -29.5% 9% 9% -24.3%
≤30d 22 -22.0% -29.5% 9% 9% -24.3%
≤90d 22 -22.0% -29.5% 9% 9% -24.3%
all 22 -22.0% -29.5% 9% 9% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 9% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 0% -31.5%
15% -42.4% 0% -38.1%
20% -48.0% 0% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)22 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$1 -23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $4 −$3 -79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $7 −$1 -13%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -89%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -4%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 52¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 44¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 18¢ $1 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? SELL No 94¢ $5 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 34¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? SELL No 96¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 93¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 58¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.75 · official $405.83 (match) · 68 history records