Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe3d…a091
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 6 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$2
sports 25% +$1
politics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 27h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 8 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 8 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -15.3%
all 8 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 50% -15.3%
10% -35.7% 50% -23.4%
15% -41.9% 38% -30.8%
20% -47.6% 25% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.96 · official $9.96 (match) · 18 history records