Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe3e…1d44 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
politics 33% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage108d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $94 15h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 14d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $94 16d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $94 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 25d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 27d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $94 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $94 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 35d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 37d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 42d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 42d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 47d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $74 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 49d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $96 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $96 68d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $96 72d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $96 77d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $96 77d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records