Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe42…d8e4 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1
other 24% $0
sports 21% −$4
economics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage181d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $115 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $353 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $238 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $238 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $238 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 09 $238 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $238 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $238 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 30 $241 −$3 -1%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $232 −$1 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $237 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 16h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $115 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $115 18d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $115 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 30d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 30d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 38d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 42d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 50d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 50d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $116 70d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $116 70d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 74d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 74d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $238 90d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $238 91d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 99d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 99d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $238 103d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $238 103d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $238 106d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $238 107d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $238 110d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $238 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records