Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe43…ed55 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-42%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$23
other 39% $0
sports 10% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.5% +17.1% 38% 38% -10.0%
≤30d 9 +15.1% +4.1% 33% 33% -16.9%
≤90d 9 +15.1% +4.1% 33% 33% -16.9%
all 9 +15.1% +4.1% 33% 33% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 33% -16.9%
10% -5.8% 11% -24.9%
15% -14.9% 11% -32.1%
20% -23.3% 11% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$23 +710%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -93%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 38m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 13h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.85 · official $19.86 (match) · 13 history records